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YouTube Video Transcript
[Music] hey this is David for pig bits in this video we’re gonna talk about how the CME futures have kind of changed trading for Bitcoin and this is a fairly new thing to Bitcoin trading and crypto trading in general and that there are these regulated futures contracts now that have their own data feed as opposed to the existing continuous 24/7 365 trading like Bitcoin traditionally has had these futures they closed at certain times on the weekends and you can see there’s gaps in these charts and that produces different values on moving averages and other indicators as well so today we’re actually gonna take a look at how the CMA futures seem to be impacting trading on Bitcoin so I’m gonna go ahead and I’m gonna remove myself from the video here so you don’t have to look at me anymore all right excellent now if you’re not familiar I have been making an indicator development series and I’ve shown you all the steps to create this indicator but we have an indicator with adjustable moving averages if the Green Line on both charts here is the 50 period simple moving average the yellow line is the 100 period simple moving average and the red line is the 200 period simple moving average now on the left this is the Queen based chart for Bitcoin and on the right is the CMA futures price for Bitcoin now the CMA futures didn’t start until I believe the end of 2017 and really didn’t get going hugely until 2018 and there was an article we talked about on the channel the other day where it was believed that the Trump administration or at least some of the people that he appointed worked to introduce the futures or approve the regulations for the futures so that the bubble could be popped so just keep that in mind when they came out Bitcoin was pretty much at its peak and this is pretty much new data that we’re working with over the last year and a half to two years now so let’s take a look and see what we can tell first of all let’s take a look at the 50 period on these and that would be just the Green Line and you can tell see me the 50 period didn’t really mean too much back here although it did have a fake out here before the dump this was also evident on the 50 period on the spot race now this is really not that big of a deal but you’ll notice that the 100 period moving average on the spot exchange that trades constantly the 100 period moving average was the peak of that fake-out whereas over here there was still some room before it now I know that this seems to be odd this is kind of a new trend but you can see that these different moving averages are catching at different locations so here for example on the CMA futures you can see the 100 period moving average actually acted as resistance on a potential breakout here whereas on the Bitcoin chart for coinbase it was well above the 100 period moving average so this to me is just an example of where the CM e futures are kind of changing the trading game and you have people trading the CM e futures charts and you also have people trading the spot charts and I think that’s why we’re gonna see this going forward is that you’re gonna have to pay attention to two different charts until they start lining up a little bit better and I honestly don’t know if they ever will as long as there are the closures and that introduces these gaps in the price now let’s move ahead forward and we have our first big difference here is that we were well above the 100 on the coin base exchange and we met it as resistance here now this is also happen in other cases and let’s see where the seeing me has actually had a different impact let’s go back to earlier this year in February the 50 period on the CM II acted as resistance all the way down here close to the bottom but the 50 period was also resistance on the coin base exchange too so either way you look at it this way when it broke out it broke out above those and it looked like it used the 100 and the 50 as support on the coin basics change whereas when it broke up here there really wasn’t much interaction other than it did find support on the 50 period moving average well I would say it found much better support they the candles approached the 50 period simple moving average on the CME’s much more so than they did here if you’ll notice the crosshairs on the screen when I move the cursor there’s a horizontal and vertical crosshairs and you’ll notice here on the coin base chart the candles don’t quite get down there and I’m not going to zoom in because I want the whole chart to be in perspective here but they’re not quite as close as the lines on the CMA futures chart where it looks like the candles actually touched that line and bounce off of it now keep in mind here we are also crossed above the 100 period moving average and something to keep in mind let’s take a look at here no okay the 100 period moving average we are well above it here which is pretty mulish thing on the regular markets here let’s look at the futures and see the difference here we’ve been well above it and we hold it as support and we’re going above it but if you’ll notice on the CMA chart on the right the price is below the 100 day moving average the entire time but once it closes above that 100 day and broke free it immediately goes to test the 200-day moving average on the CME contract okay and price kind of flutter around here there’s a whole lot of stuff there’s a bunch of reasons why the price kind of slowed down here but the first reaction it had on CM II was to test that 200 line and and bounce back and come back up to it and then probably for other reasons it stayed around there but you’ll notice maybe and maybe I’m the only one here thinks this but when I saw the initial huge jump in price directly over the 200 period moving average back in March of this year I thought that it was kind of odd that we would jump straight over such a pivotal moving average on the Bitcoin charts that 200-day moving average we didn’t we just blew right through it without even testing it as resistance honestly and after it had spent so much time beneath it it really seemed kind of odd that it would do that now when you look at the CMA chart you’ll notice since the 200-day moving average was there on seeing me maybe now that there’s enough data on the CM II charts there’s enough people trading it that that is why it stopped out there and the price jumped because it broke the 100 period and went pretty much immediately straight to the 200 period okay so moving forward after that we just had this kind of parabolic run-up and I think that had a lot to do with both of the charts at that point were above the price was above on both charts all of these critical moving averages so the trend was obviously up and it probably triggered a lot of different indicators to buy at that time now going forward will notice the 50 period moving average seems to have been worthless on coinbase the 100 period moving average perhaps acted as some sort of support here although those wicks aren’t really that well in line with it and one thing to note though is that once the price went under the 200 period moving average here on the coinbase exchange did act as resistance because the candles did close very close to that line even though there were wicks above it it doesn’t indicate necessarily how much of the trading was done above that line so it did act as resistance when price went down and pops straight back up when there was a death cross which is supposedly a bearish indicator it should have been well it is a lagging indicator which the price has to be below in order for those averages to move down so it was foreseen for a while but this supposedly bearish indicator resulted in a huge spike in price which by the way also kind of stopped out around that 100 period moving average and we now have this huge intersection of moving averages on the coin based exchange that just seemed kind of odd now if you go back and you look at the CM each chart you’ll notice the 100 period moving average was a brief stop here it wasn’t enough to hold we were already in the middle of the breakdown but up here it also seemed to serve as resistance here and once that started to happen I think it might have been clearer if you were trading on the CMA chart that it was going to break down until you saw the breakout above that line now once it did break below the 100 period moving average you can see we did find some support and not all the supports are based on you know moving averages but we did see the 200 period on the Columbus chart act as resistance but on the other side of the spectrum we saw the 200-day act as a critical and say that because there was a massive jump in the price once it found support here on the 200-day on the cma chart and it jumped straight up to the 100 day on the cma back down to the 50-day which seems to be holding support and it’s interesting right now and this is 10 31 2019 is that on this Halloween day the 50 period moving average going down on the see Emmy contracts seems to be holding as support on that chart whereas the 200-day moving average moving up seems to be holding as some support on the coinbase chart now let’s zoom in and let’s see I think that’s about right yeah so you can see there are wicks blow on the 50 period on the CME and there are also some wicks below on the 200 on the coinbase chart so it’s pretty interesting the 100 moving averages are fairly close on this chart on the CMA it’s closer to 10,000 where it’s actually around 9600 over here you can see prices in a narrow region around many different moving averages so it’ll be interesting to see what happens in the future will the 200-day on the coinbase chart make as much of an impact as the 200-day on the cma chart but I think the the biggest lesson here out of everything we’ve talked about is that the CMA chart is starting to prove to be perhaps just as reliable perhaps even more reliable than the 24/7 crypto chain crypto exchange charts that we’re looking at here a lot of times people will look at coinbase or they’ll look at bit mix or mid finex or these other well-known crypto exchanges but to me the price seems to be reacting more so to the CM e chart than it does on those other charts so that’s something to keep in mind going forward when you’re looking at these charts you might want to do something like I have here and pull up both charts in the same window that way you can kind of get an idea what’s going on on these larger time frames such as the daily or the weekly as well so I’m gonna bring myself back into the picture here alright so I hope you all enjoyed this video I think if you haven’t seen this before this is this was pretty big to me just seeing this cuz this is relatively new data you might not have seen it before and when I saw this for the first time I was very intrigued because it does seem like the CMA starting to play a bigger role in this and of course there is no actual trading if I say I’m not telling you to buy or sell anything but this is a pattern that is being noticed that you need to pay attention to in my opinion so if you liked this video please like I developed these indicators and there’s actually a lot more to them here let’s take a look we’ve got all kinds of settings you can change the period the moving average type the data source the resolution of each moving average individually and we also have crossovers we have forecasts and ribbons as well so if you’ve liked that indicator it’s available on training view through my profile you can find my scripts here that I’ve created we’ve done quite a few already there’s also a video series here on YouTube so subscribe to the channel if you like that but for now I think that’s it everyone have a great day and see you in the next one [Music]
