YouTube Video
YouTube Video Transcript
[Music] you hey this is David for big bits and we are doing a daily of day ear first of all I want to say that the price continues to drop if you’re watching the charts that’s pretty pretty obvious but there is a little bit of hope I know we broke the 200-day moving average but we are coming up on some potential support a lot of people are mentioning 7.7 as potential support and one of the estimating some of the values here so we can get a look at really what’s going on okay so this 350 day is a 50 week moving average seven days times 5350 so it’s the 50 week moving average and you can see it’s kind of hovering down here seems like it might be fairly important as you can tell I think when this broke here it was a pretty good indicator who’s gonna continue to go on and back in the bear market it actually acted as resistance twice as price failed to break it so I’m kind of keeping an eye out to see if we continue past this support and this seven-one-seven 27.9 KH that very might well head down towards six point seven six point six where coincidentally we had a lot of consolidation in which case I would hope for it to turn back around now there’s several reasons and I posted it on my trading view profile an idea call it the glass half full approach and I’ll actually show you this in just a moment in a little bit more detail but this is essentially the same chart we’re looking at and take a look at the oversold RSI levels and the oversold stochastic RSI they’re pretty familiar to some stuff we’ve been looking at before this long period of oversold levels not certain that’s gonna happen again if you read if you don’t want to my trading view profile which should be in the description of the video if you go into the trading view profile and you look at this idea and you read it you’re gonna see I I go back quite a bit and we’ll look at that chart in just a moment but this price breakdown here is different than what we’re dealing with now and it’s very fundamental you can see price was much tighter for much longer just the period of time from you know this very narrow range of just a few hundred dollars lasted from September all the way through the middle of November and we’ve been consolidating in a pretty wide range comparatively for you know two and a half or three months as well but look how many times that level of support was hit before it was finally broke that support goes back quite a while all the way back to here yeah that was the first time it touched that support goes back quite a while so the price consolidated for a very very long time which in turn created a very very large breakdown with very much historical or historically low RSI levels Bitcoin reached its lowest daily RSI ever when it broke down here on I believe that’s November 19th or November 20th to 2018 it was the lowest RSI ever now you’ll notice the price kept going down and it created some sort of divergence here on the RSI chart and when it finally broke out of the oversold levels it had a pretty good pop and then we entered that very bullish period earlier this year where prices expanded and I honestly think they expanded a little bit quicker than they should have I think people were just a little bit too excited to see the Bitcoin prices coming back up once it broke 6,000 especially once it broke that I think they’re really excited and just kept going and going and there’s a little bit too much too quick but now I think the prices have been only been consolidating for a few months and the breakdown actually have some support behind it and back here we didn’t really have a whole lot of support other than you know some brief pit stops on the bull cycle in 2017 here we have quite a bit of history and particularly this $6,500 range where our 50 week moving average happens to be could could be the line where price turns around it hasn’t tested this this line since turning back where prices have crossed over it hasn’t retested that 50 week moving average and it doesn’t have to because it didn’t do it in the last full cycle but I think it very well could and as they say you know previous performance doesn’t indicate future results and these things could change if you’ve seen the logarithmic charts on Bitcoin you’ll know on those prediction sites that just because and I’ll load one up here just because it’s happened in the past doesn’t mean it’s gonna happen in the future plus not only that since the price is getting higher and higher it’s gonna be harder and harder to get the same amount of gains and I’ll show you that with what I mean here this is a moon math not win it’s a simple logarithmic chart they show you the calculations here for it but you can see over time and on a log chart this has to flatten out somewhat and I honestly think this is too optimistic but even if it levels out and it only goes up to the orange here that’s still several hundred thousand dollars so you just have to be mindful of these sort of things listen when it comes to the price and the possible possibility in the future here okay so back to this and back to my point I I think I went off on a tangent there but anyway we’re at very much oversold levels on skazzica RSI when they usually get to zero on these lines I usually have either periods of sideways movement or a pop up you’ll see here it actually kind of continued down so it’ll continue to rise but the price will continue to fall and when that happens when this Rises and the price continues to fall steadily like that it’s a pretty good idea a pretty good guess I would say that it would indicate the prices you’re gonna shoot back up quickly and of course it did and it shot back down this is cuff this stochastic RSI and it goes really quick so I’m worried too much with that but back to our RSI you’ll notice we’re at negative 20-something and in the entire history of Bitcoin it’s only went this low a handful of times maybe two handfuls if you just count the amount of times that it went below in a relative short period of time and to look at that we’re gonna look at the BLX chart which is brave new coin liquid index and it has the longest set of data for Bitcoin in its history and this is the daily chart I’m going to keep it on the daily chart because if we change it to the weekly RSI values obviously won’t be the same let’s continue to zoom out oh is it gonna let us oh no that was the end of it okay so we’ve got the entire Bitcoin price history that’s available to us on this chart and look where our RSI is negative 20 hopefully you can see the line that I’m pointing to and you can see just how many times it’s actually ever been this low and I’ve already mentioned how I think the large breakdown from 6,000 in the bear market was kind of an anomaly compared to what we’re dealing with now so if history is a lesson here and it does repeat and it seems likely that it’s going to bounce pretty soon at least with the RSI and a lot of the times when it bounced from these very low levels and moved back up pretty swiftly to overbought levels here’s one that went oversold to over by relatively quickly oversold to overbought relatively quickly this one almost touched overbought right after going oversold this one same thing this one was there during the bear market and I would say this might be reminiscent of this period of oversold levels so it might be another kind of anomaly there but here is another one during the bear market it did a double touchdown there but it had a nice W that it formed there yeah you can see that on the chart but it’s it didn’t even get as low as what we are now when it did that so I saying this is pretty historic levels here and judging on the chart there’s about a 50% chance if this is not a bear market that it’s going to go straight back up into the overbought territory in a few weeks that’s just based on what we’ve seen in the past and obviously that doesn’t mean anything about going forward and I’m not telling you to buy or anything I’m just telling you to do might be an opportunity here in the short-term to get into a position for myself and I don’t know I’m it goes back to an idea that I was told when I started to learn to trade and that was you need to think like the market maker now I said earlier in the video that the prices probably went up a little bit too quickly they started going parabolic earlier in the year and everybody was drawing these parabolic lines trying to explain what the price was going up so quickly and it it didn’t seem right that the price would go up that quickly from finally breaking back above 4,000 here it shot up from April to June 26 what’s two-and-a-half months it went up ten thousand dollars that’s a it’s an incredible movement it was too fast if you’re the market maker and let’s say you are the one person in control of trading Bitcoin if you push the price from $3,000 to $14,000 within a period of months and you were heavily in profit because the entire time it was down here you were buying if you controlled the market and you pushed it all the way up here and finally everyone is starting to think that you know what it is gonna keep going back if it’s gonna reach all-time highs any minute now well what would you do what would you do if you control the entire market and you push the price up this far already would you continue to push the price up and let other people hop along so that they could sell theirs higher to know you’re greedy so what you’re going to do is you’re gonna make the consolidation and you’re gonna make it go down you’re gonna shake out the people who bought in late look there was no huge correction here there was no consolidation for the most part and now you’re making those people who went long up at the top pay and that’s it’s a really smart way to trade when you’re trying to make money and I don’t know anyone who’s trading who isn’t trying to make money and if you got the most money you do the most to make the most for yourself that’s a lot of most but it’s the truth and it’s it’s just like a game if you control all the pieces you’re gonna do everything you can to benefit yourself the most I’m not saying anyone does have control of all the pieces but there are people who have substantial control over the market and if it was me I would have done the same thing you know build all this hope and then just shake out the we cants maybe that means you know just going back to the 200-day average or maybe it means going back to the 50 week average or somewhere in between but you can’t make it easy for people to make money well you won’t win if it’s easy for everyone to make money who’s gonna lose when you’re buying and selling things and you’re trying to make a profit on buying something cheap and selling it when it’s more expensive somebody has to lose not everybody can win and if you look at the numbers that’s very true most people who do trade don’t win so that’s one tip that I learned that I really appreciate and I use when I’m thinking about charts is you always have to think about what would benefit the person who if they had entire control of the market would do and I think this is exactly what they would do I really do okay so moving on I think that covers Bitcoin pretty well I’ll just take a look at the theory ‘m real quick okay yeah that’s not too good let me remove this stuff off the chart yeah it’s not looking too good with the moving average let me turn my ball and your pants back on yeah it’s not looking too good I mean it is really low on the stochastic RSI but that doesn’t mean a whole lot when your artists eyes and already low either and it’s leaning towards the bottom of the Bollinger Bands had a golden cross there her death cross excuse me down I mean it doesn’t look good let’s look at it versus Bitcoin them not terrible versus Bitcoin a thing is I think the ratio versus Bitcoin could rise and it could test that 200-day moving average but at the same time that could just be because the Bitcoin price could continue to go down and aetherium stay relatively close to what it is versus USD now I don’t think there’s any more I want to cover right now I’ll get into all coins and stuff on a weekly video but continuing on make sure you check out the the profile I’ve published a bunch of scripts I’ve done the scripting tutorial series and I have a couple of more videos recorded for that that are going to go out later I think I have one tomorrow and then two next week and then I’m working on some different content and then we’ll pick back up and do the scripting tutorials again later all right so this is pretty cool there’s an indicator called stocked a flowchart let me see do they not have the picture that I’m looking for no of course I clicked on the article and doesn’t have the one picture that I wanted to see essentially there’s an indicator called stock the flow that you can check out and essentially the price has been the actual Bitcoin price it’s pretty much been an average of what the stock the flow would have been or averaged out the Bitcoin price would have been pretty much a line that would have been created by stock to flow it’s pretty interesting something to check out I think 8.4 K or something like that was the actual stock to flow value for Bitcoin or 10k was and it dropped below that on the crash the other day so something to check out usually it’s related to the havening the stock the flow when the price shoot backs up I don’t really understand stock the flow all that much but a lot of people have been talking about it and it’s something that I wanted to show you but they don’t have the one that I was looking for here maybe I’ll plug it up in another video and it looks like an advertisement thank you brave the Bitcoin network hash rate mysteriously flash crash is about 40% now if you saw this don’t believe it the hash rate and I didn’t even know this until this happened there today the hash rate on the Bitcoin network is estimated it is not a number that is reported by the miners that the network stores anywhere it’s just calculated based on how quick the blocks are coming in and the difficulty that’s really all it is so that’s why you get these constant fluctuations but the average hash rate which would be somewhere in the middle of all those is probably more accurate representation and it it just it crashed 40% because there were several blocks mined one after the other very quickly which they’re supposed to be about 10 minutes apart but if the miners get really lucky and they get them successively one after the other then it could make these estimations think that it’s going incredibly faster or slower depending on you know if if it took you know 20 minutes between blocks it could make it think it was going slower which could cause the crash and the hash rate estimation so it’s just something to keep in mind these hash rates are calculated and how I told you might not be the right way but the important thing to know is that the hash rates are calculated they aren’t actual numbers that the network has so it’s good to know that now this one is really interesting talking about tokens and just crypto finance in general I don’t know who this guy is and I’m a pretty big college basketball fan maybe he’s a foreign player who’s coming over to America or something I don’t know I don’t remember seeing this guy’s name I’m a Kentucky basketball fan so if he didn’t play against Kentucky or on a major team and there’s a good chance I didn’t know about him anyway what he’s done is he’s gotten a guaranteed contract so he’s going to be guaranteed to pay thirty four million dollars over the course of three years now the first year of his contract looks like he is guaranteed like sixteen million dollars this season okay what he’s doing is he’s tokenizing his first year’s salary so that he can get paid up front so instead of him collecting his pay you know week by week or however they get paid game by game he is going to tokenize his salary and the people who buy the tokens will get their portion of his salary as it comes in meanwhile he gets all of the money up front now of course he’s not getting the entire 16 million he’s only going to end up getting thirteen and a half million because you know there’s got to be some sort of draw for people to want about the tokens but it’s pretty neat and I’ll be interested to see if this is a trend in the future now personally I wouldn’t have done this if I were him because that’s two and a half million dollars you’re giving up and you tell them you can’t live on you know your paychecks being like a hundred thousand dollars each I don’t know I don’t understand it personally maybe he maybe there’s another opportunity he can get in on that’s better I don’t know it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me but maybe it’s a trend that we’ll see happening maybe there’s something I’m not thinking about I’m no financial expert when it comes to things like this so who knows what he’s up to but it’s interesting to note that this is happening and maybe it’s gonna set a precedent for other players we’ll see but thanks for watching that’s all for tonight had a lot to go over I’m gonna be pretty busy here soon so might not have an update the next day or two we’ll see but thanks for watching have a good one and see you next time
