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[Music] hey this is statement for big bits and in this video we’re gonna take a look at the future of cryptocurrency and more specifically Bitcoin for the decade of the 2020s now the last decade which is essentially the first decade in which Bitcoin existed and cryptocurrencies the price has shot up quite a bit adoption has grown somewhat but mostly people are worried about the price and what’s gonna happen with it but there’s been a lot of big events over the last decade and as specifically with adoption and how people were using Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and it started out I remember the first article I ever seen about Bitcoin it was probably in 2009 or 2010 is when a very first came out I thought it was a stupid idea at the time I had no idea anything about the technology but they were selling it as this new currency this digital currency and that was it nobody really understood it at the time so we all thought you know that’s what our bank accounts are it’s the same exact thing but it’s not obviously there’s a lot of resources out there if you don’t know what bitcoin is by now definitely check out those videos but it’s amazing to see how far we’ve come just from an education standpoint on how many people know about Bitcoin now and really over the last decade the perception of Bitcoin was that it was only for people who were nerds at very first the only people who cared about Bitcoin were people who were you know cypher punks who were just interested in the technology itself which really pretty good thing there was a pretty demanding crowd for it initially and that’s how the network got launched granted it was a small crowd but they were very into what the project was trying to accomplish now over time the price shot up and went down and then they’re in the middle of the 2010s the big use case was of course using Bitcoin and cryptocurrency for drugs and it’s very unfortunate that it got associated with that because it really tainted how Bitcoin and crypto was seen in the public but it really brought it to light and made it more perceptive I guess for people to see that it’s actually being used for something granted it’s not something good but they’re saying that Bitcoin is actually being used for something and then go forward from that then we have towards the end of the decade the great bubble with icos and hard forks and that’s really the main takeaway from the end of the decade there and then of course we also have a lot of work going on in the background that a lot of people don’t know about you know such as the Lightning Network a lot of people in the crypto saying know about that but it’s not very widely known that there’s a second layer or you know that there’s even hard Forks but the biggest thing that happened at the end of the decade was definitely I SEOs ayios and this trying this kind of gold rush for people to try and make money so that kind of leads to the question where are we going in the 2020s and I’m sorry I rambled on about the last decade of this video supposed to be about the next decade but you kind of gotta understand where we’ve come from and how much we’ve grown you know you went from this small group of people who only cared about this particular technology to people who only use it to skirt around the laws for drugs to you know nearly everybody talking about it at Christmas in 2017 and everybody trying to get rich off of it and different crypto currencies so where could that possibly lead or where can it possibly go in the next decade that it isn’t already at now of course you’ll say you know adoption we’re gonna have more people using it well I think that’s pretty fair to say it is fairly new technology and it’s pretty well expected that it’s gonna grow with adoption but one of the main things we’re going to look at in the next decade is something I tweeted about a little while ago at the end of October and there’s three main things that I wanted to take a look at and that is that due to the block happening schedule number one and I’ve got this here in the tweet we are going to have less than 1 million Bitcoin left to mine at the end of the next decade currently we have I think less than 3 million left to mine so there’s gonna be 2 million so 2/3 of the remaining Bitcoin to be mined between now and the year 2040 as expected will be mined within the next decade that’s a huge portion of it that’s going to be decreasing the inflation rate of Bitcoin now of course miners are still going to get transaction fees so they’re gonna hope that people are still sending transactions over the network to make money but the reward they get just for operating their mining rigs will go down based on their power that they put it in so gonna be a very big time mainly because after every habit in the past there’s been a huge increase in price and the following months to the year afterward and that’s what’s led to a lot of these bubbles and a lot of the hype in the past around the price now I’m gonna pull this up and I’m gonna bring this up a couple of times you can see this is about a 10-year chart this is the entire history on trading view with the BLX and this goes back I think to 2010 until as of this particular moment of the videos being recorded so we start off here and we kind of have this curve on the logarithmic chart this isn’t a a flat chart you know each one of these rectangles isn’t worth you know five or ten dollars this is you know one to ten dollars ten to a hundred etc something like that it’s growing on a log scale here the price is going up exponentially now you’ll see after the having there was a huge increase in price there was another happening in 2016 after that then price shot up again and we’re due for another one here in early 2020 which should be around here on this particular chart which might lead to the price increasing again but you can see got on the chart after every happening the price tends to shoot up afterward and that’s because there’s less Bitcoin being added every day into the ecosystem and you’ll hear this referred to as a circulating supply but every day right now there are 12 and a half bitcoins being added on every block and you know it’s every 10 minutes and these are how many blocks we have as of this recording until the next happening and that’s you know nearly 20,000 I’m going around it at the 20,000 that’s 20,000 blocks of 12 and a half Bitcoin each going forward in 2020 it’s gonna drop from 12 and a half to 6 and a quarter so these people who are mining Bitcoin and selling Bitcoin aren’t gonna be receiving the same manner of rewards as they were before even if their amount of network power to continue to stay the same they’re still only going to be receiving half of what they received before just with the block rewards now the transaction fees on the blocks vary depending on how many transactions and how much people pay for their fees but the overall block rewards are decreasing and this is gonna happen two more times and this is another chart that I should have just shown you this one but these green lines represents when the happenings occurred or when the having’s occurred excuse me and the price shot up pretty routinely after that now this is the inflation chart that I was kind of getting at a bit ago we can see down at the bottom on the x-axis above it they have the rewards per segment and you can maybe tell there’s some gray lines that are a grid line on its chart but the first segment is the first set of blocker wards at 50 then you have a 25 and then right now we are in this segment of 12.5 coins per block for the reward you can see that these are how many in blue is how many bitcoins are circulating right now so we’re probably around right here just over 18 million and you can tell the next decade is going to take us through until 2024 but to be the next happening in the next decade which will recreate the block rewards to three point one to five and then in 2028 the rewards are going to get reduced down to one point five six and the decade is going to end right here you can see this small sliver of space left of rewards that are available on the network and really that’s quite amazing and I got to bring up my chart again to show you look at the first ten years here we’re right here it’s funny because the price seems to be kind of emulating that pattern I mean just look at that it’s pretty much the same curve so if we get that same kind of action going in the future on this log scale I mean the prices if they continue to go up and Bitcoin continues to be used who knows we could see hundreds of thousands of dollars value because even these small movements on a log scale like this are gonna be huge moves dollar wise per each coin so and this is something to keep in mind when you’re looking for the next decade as far as price goes I’m not terribly great at predicting long term prices but I could easily see if Bitcoin maintains its pace with adoption and it becomes what we believe it will be I’m gonna say by the end of the next decade we’re gonna be looking at $200,000 and that might be conservative that might be way too high I don’t know that’s just a guess but that’s assuming right here that the price is I believe $7,000 right now that if it follows this kind of curve like it appears to be doing somewhat on the actual log chart that you know this seems to be 10 times maybe higher and on a log chart well might not even be that much higher but on the log chart I would say that would probably look to be about $200,000 but that’s just a really really wild yes I have no idea but I do think and believe that the price is gonna go up over time now take this off the screen we’ll go ahead and look I really wanted to touch on the block rewards because that’s gonna be a huge thing in the next decade particularly if the adoption continues to pick up because there’s going to be so few left remember we’re gonna be right here and this is the maximum rewards there’s gonna be so few left after the end of the next decade it is going to be a huge deal throughout the course of the decade particularly in 2032 during that particular happening is it’s going to get very very close and you’re gonna have less than one Bitcoin reward starting in 2032 so that’s a big deal going into the next decade and then of course beyond it gets even smaller until eventually it vanishes but it’s all very important to take a look at for the next second there’s one other thing I believe I had highlighted here yeah so this is the thing I highlighted there will be more than 98 percent mined by 2030 so that means for the next 110 years there will only be 2 percent of all Bitcoin left to be mined so no new Bitcoin other than 2% of the total supply possible over the remaining 110 years that’s it’s hard to believe especially if it becomes something people use every day now let’s go back to the tweet and the other item I want to take a look at was that countries are racing to innovate and this is actually going on now it’s just not really a big deal with the general public right now but you can see this if you follow crypto news so that countries are indeed racing to innovate and be crypto leaders with their own digital sovereign currencies and you might hear this referred to as CB DC’s or central bank digital currencies now even the US there are people looking into this already to try and look at implementing a digital currency for the United States this particular article says the US Fed weighs up their own CBD C as a counter moving in China it’s because China has already announced that they do plan to release their own CBD C I believe within the next year and that’s gonna be the start of the decade and that’s why I think this is going to be a huge deal over the next decade and I think it’s gonna be a topic of the 2020 election cycle for president if not this one then the next one and if it isn’t part of this cycle then the whole Facebook coin with Libra probably gonna be a decent sized issue in the current election if if it gets brought up if crypto is a topic then it’ll be Facebook and Libra now it might be CB DC depending on how the politics play out and if china releases theirs before the u.s. election now if not then definitely by 2024 because we’ll have an idea of how it’s worked out for China in some of these other countries but and this is very important to look at I think I read another article it’s probably gonna be at least five years before the US can even really move on this right now at the end of this decade they’re mostly worried about impeachment and you know partisan politics back and forth so not a lots getting really done right now the committee’s are moving on certain things there’s all these different regulatory agencies working but the lawmakers themselves aren’t really doing too much right now so it’s gonna be a while before the US moves on this but just keep in mind I do think this is gonna be a huge deal within the next decade because China of course is already doing it Barda I think they’re the largest and second largest country on Earth and they’re gonna have their own and then of course America eventually might move to and it seems likely if China does it and especially if it works out for China now it’s not like it’s just the US and China their countries are looking at doing this and already the Bahamas have already began to plan the launch of their digital currency known as the sand dollar and it’s only going to be a pilot project for right now but if it goes well then it’s going to be used throughout the entire country they’re only going to do this on one particular Island to start out with giving people wallets but it is not really a crypto currency so to say but it is their own digital fiat currency so it is operating similar to a cryptocurrency it is supposed to be this ledger this public ledger for their currency now it may not be on blockchain and it you know may not have some of the same properties as the cryptocurrency which certainly won’t but it is definitely a move towards this and as we get people in this next decade looking towards these digital currencies they’re going to wonder why not Bitcoin if we have you know a digital dollar why wouldn’t I just have Bitcoin it’s digital – this might go hand in hand but the thing that I really think is going to take off with these digital currencies is that crypto exchanges much like the forex exchanges and stock exchanges that we work with will be able to directly connect to these currency networks and depending on how it’s set up they may have to get some sort of authorization to do so which I’ll touch on that in a bit but depending on how these digital currencies are set up it could make the on-ramp in to crypto currencies much easier so right now if you want to use coin base you have to set up your bank account or connect a credit card whereas in the future you might just be able to use your digital currency ID Oh or however they haven’t set up connect your digital currency accounts directly and the transactions wouldn’t happen immediately now I’m also gonna touch on how these transactions are gonna work in just a moment but that could make it much easier for people to move their money in and with less fees perhaps now one of the things I’m kind of worried about is censoring of cryptocurrency as it is going to become a bigger competitor to the actual fiat currencies especially if they move to a purely digital format now right now we have cash and you know credit cards bank accounts but there is no direct equivalent really to Bitcoin or crypto currencies but when that happens you could see a push especially in you know other countries that aren’t quite as free other than the u.s. that is that they will certainly try to quell the noise about crypto currencies and push their own that way their particular currency will have more power and work more for them and with political issues so like the US dollar is used due to its power globally as the reserve currency to play politics with other countries and kind of set regulations and restrictions on other countries based on the fact that the dollar is so valuable and all these other countries who want it so these are the countries want their currency to be valuable as well so that they can do those same sorts of games now when it comes to censoring and this is exactly talking about this guy I don’t know if you’ve seen him yet or not but he has already stated and I think I forget when he’s on yeah the House Financial Services Committee a representative Brad Sherman and he’s a Democrat from California he’s been on record and in the correctional record now saying that bitcoin is a threat to the US dollar I’ve watched these hearings and he’s very much against Bitcoin in the sense that it will compete with the dollar and that crypto enthusiasts are specifically rooting for Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies to overtake the dollar and to be fair it’s his job as a representative of America in my opinion to promote the US dollar because for his sake it makes his job a lot easier to enforce these sanctions restrictions regulations on other countries when the US dollar is on top so it makes complete sense why he would say these things but that also means you’re gonna have to look out for these things at the future if we do these digital currencies and maybe even if not these things might get censored at and you’ll also realize lately here at the end of 2019 there was a censoring of youtubers like myself who made crypto videos and they had their channels flagged and given content strikes for dangerous or I think it was potentially harmful content but for the most part it was just normal crypto youtubers I think a lot of people were shilling I SEOs things like that so maybe they should have been flagged but there were a lot of people who were doing legitimate content who were flagged as well such as data – and he actually had his channel blacked out for up to a week the decision got overturned but this is an example of something that can happen you – of course is the was popular platform for video sharing for cryptocurrencies it doesn’t really make a whole lot of sense right now for there to be live streaming there isn’t really that many updates people if they livestream they’re probably just live streaming trading so switching to a streaming platform like Twitter or something like that doesn’t really make a lot of sense right now so having the world’s largest streaming site for video not streaming but the world’s largest site for video sharing YouTube to spread the message about cryptocurrencies and provide educational content about them it’s a huge deal if YouTube were to censor and it might not even be YouTube or Google’s decision to censor this topic it these decisions could from from the government the government could pass a law and it goes back to this one that says you’re not allowed to promote these things these are illegal activities that we’re doing here so you can’t do these things and YouTube following those rules we’ll go through and of course sensor than bin right now this seems like it was a bit of an accident it wasn’t really meant to happen so a lot of them been overturned but this is just an example of what could very well happen so a lot of people are also suggesting that you switch to the decentralized platforms there are decentralized video sharing sites but of course they’re not popular yet so you want something that’s going to return well on search results if you’re making videos people aren’t just going to make videos to make videos for the most part if you’re making a video for your project it doesn’t necessarily have to be on YouTube but if you’re trying to reach people and you don’t already have a base of viewers then using YouTube is a great way because there’s already a lot of people on that platform who will have access to your videos and once they finish watching another video your video might pop up as a recommendation plus you know it’s you know gonna be a higher ranked result on Google searches as well for YouTube videos as opposed to these very low ranking decentralized video sharing sites all right I think I’ve went on enough about that I have a lot of views on that but going forward let’s see what our third one was it was how payment processors respond this goes back to the point I made about coinbase connecting to the central bank digital currency and fees all right now you have to pay a fee if you move with a credit card or a debit card and in cases there’s fees with cheque transact online tricks check online check transactions excuse me so how are they going to handle this if how our payment process like Visa MasterCard going to handle the competition that might arise from people offering much lower fees on the same reliable network if these transactions are all settled on a central bank digital currency how are these payment processors possibly going to keep up with these fees they’re gonna have to integrate into the system and have this whole new layer of fees that they’re gonna have and it’s gonna have to be much lower well depending on what the fees are just to do any transaction on that network so if you think about a central bank digital currency if you were to convert the US dollar to a digital currency I think ideally you would want to operate like cash you would want to be able to give money to someone else without there being a fee now there is also the option that since this is a state currency that if you transact there could be a tax and this is similar to a transaction fee on the network there could be a you know 3% federal tax on every transaction and you can’t get around it because it’s programmed into the digital currency itself I think that’s highly unlikely to happen at least that level there might be a minor fee not a Bitcoin mining fee so to say but a minor fee as in a small percentage as in a very small percentage but that’s yet to be seen so I don’t want to speculate too much on that but also payment processors are going to have to respond to Bitcoin and crypto currencies in general the fees they offer can be much lower transaction is gonna happen much quicker so how Visa and MasterCard respond over the next decade is in my opinion going to be a very large part of the next decade because either these digital currencies are going to become more adopted or Bitcoin and it’s going to become more adopted and other cryptocurrencies or both Bitcoin and digital currencies are going to become more well adopted and these people who rely on processing payments are either going to be facing a huge threat or they’re going to adopt or adapt excuse me and adopt those new technologies and try to find a way to fit into that ecosystem now I have a feeling that when these central bank digital currencies are being put forth that there’s gonna be lobbyists from banks payment processors all kinds of financial institutions wanting to sink their teeth into this in a regulatory way so that they get money still that they would have lost out on so if you’re you know facing a transaction fee for using your debit card the bank is essentially losing that money if you were to instead use a central bank digital currency card if there were no fees so what’s I see going to happen is they’re gonna be lobbyists from all these different institutions who are going to step up to try and say we need this money our systems are too big to fail and what are we gonna do if we don’t have this money we can’t continue operating they’re gonna make this argument that especially early on that they have this huge segment that they’re already working with I mean huge segment of payments that they’re processing and then that these digital currencies are gonna be a small amount but as it grows they’re gonna have to support both and how are they going to be able to afford this section if they aren’t getting paid for this section you know economies of scale and I mean it’s probably cheaper you know per transaction to operate the whole segment as it is to the much smaller segment so they’re gonna argue that they’re gonna need those fees and it’s going to be a very interesting time very very interesting I can’t wait to see the effect on stocks for those particular companies now finally that pretty much covers it for the video I did want to touch on adoption just a little bit and just how people are going to be using Bitcoin and one of the things I really like our companies are starting very large companies Rakatan which is you know from what I understand the Japanese equivalent of amazon is offering their loyalty program points to be converted into cryptocurrency so if you know on your racket and store card you earned 5% cash back you could use that 5% cash back to get Bitcoin instead as opposed to maybe a credit statement or something else so these are ways that Bitcoin is being adopted by larger retailers already so it’s going to be interesting to see does Rakatan eventually take a leap from just offering Bitcoin as this kind of fun little reward to an actual payment that can be accepted on their storefront and then of course back to the fees I’m sorry I meant to do this I must have had the tabs out of order but these are the fees that were looking at on traditional transfers and cryptocurrency and if there’s a digital currency it might be zero even if they want to keep it equivalent to cash now I kind of doubt that’s gonna happen just because I think they’re gonna want a small fee as a tax to operate that particular Network and what better way to do that than to tax every transaction that way they know they are getting their money and if I were the IRS I would probably push for that as well that way you don’t have to make people report all of these transactions try and collect money for that at the end of the year just my opinion on how that might possibly work now you can see why the central bank digital currency which could potentially be a zero fee or a very small fee like aetherium and Bitcoin as well these are all very small fees that scale very well you know you could spin you could send millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin for three to seven dollars right now you could also do that for aetherium or conceivably a digital currency whereas something like a credit or debit card if you wanted to spend a lot of money you would of course pay a percentage fee now something that you would do with a debit card or a credit card is probably gonna be a small enough that you’re gonna be able to eat that two or three percent on a daily basis or as a store you can eat that on a daily basis but in the future why would you take any of these fees other than maybe an ACH over Bitcoin aetherium or additional currency so there’s a very good reason why it looks like we are moving towards cryptocurrencies or a digital currency or some course sort of combination of both but I really thank you for watching the video and just reminder this is the last 10 years of price action let me pull up that other chart just to end the video here we are see if I can get this to scale correctly all right so imagine we’re on that curve similar to that like I said my prediction by the end of 2013 just randomly 200,000 just assuming it might follow a similar curve to what it appears to have done with the circulating supply over the past but thank you for watching the video hopefully we can check back in ten years and see just how silly or how accurate some of these predictions were but thanks for watching if you liked the video please leave a like and if you like my channel please subscribe if you’d like to sign the video please subscribe I also have videos related to cryptocurrency trading and all kinds of helpful programming development type stuff to help with that so thank you for watching and have a great day [Music]
